Abstract

Author:
Agama Omachi, Onum Friday Okoh

Doi: 10.26480/egnes.01.2025.33.38

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License CC BY 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

The influence of climate change on Nigeria’s agricultural productivity (AGRP) between 1991 and 2023 is examined in this paper, with particular attention paid to important explanatory factors such as GDP, population growth, and CO2 emissions. The study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to evaluate the short- and long-term correlations between these variables and agricultural output using time series data from the Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Bank, and the Nigerian Meteorological Agency. The findings highlight the enduring nature of productivity trends by showing that historical agricultural production has a substantial impact on current output. The short-term impact of CO2 emissions is negligible, despite the fact that they exhibit a slightly significant positive lagged effect on AGRP. The expansion of the labor force and rising food demand, on the other hand, are the main reasons why population growth has a positive and considerable impact on agricultural output. GDP growth has no discernible short-term impact on agricultural output, indicating that without targeted sectoral investments, the agricultural sector does not immediately benefit from broader economic expansion. With implications for policy interventions, the study comes to the conclusion that economic dynamics, demographic pressure, and climate change all influence agricultural output in linked ways. In addition to successful climate adaptation and mitigation measures, the report suggests investing in agriculture-driven economic growth, improving population control techniques, and concentrating on climate-smart practices in order to create a resilient agricultural sector. Nigeria can manage the effects of climate change and maintain long-term food security with the support of this integrated approach.