Abstract

Author:
Seth Acquah Boateng, Bridgette Enimil, Ebenezer Takyi Danquah

Doi: 10.26480/egnes.02.2025.94.105

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License CC BY 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

This study investigates the nexus between carbon emissions, air pollution, agricultural intensification, and economic growth in West Africa and the mediating role of health investment. Machine learning model benchmarking evaluated five algorithms including Gradient Boosting (GB), Random Forest, Natural Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Regression, and Neural Networks. The analysis used 1999 to 2023 regional data with GB emerging as optimal performer. Results reveal critical nonlinear relationships between environmental factors and economic outcomes. CO₂ emissions demonstrate threshold effects at 0.5 metric tons per capita, transitioning from negative to positive impacts. PM₂.₅ pollution exhibits consistently negative effects on GDP growth across all levels. Agricultural N₂O emissions show minimal economic influence throughout the analysis period. Mediation analysis indicates health expenditure accounts for only 13.9% of environmental effects on economic outcomes showing that current health investment levels remain insufficient for meaningful environmental risk mitigation in the region. Results support targeted policy interventions including strategic air quality regulations and enhanced health expenditure. Policymakers should implement targeted air quality regulations focusing on vehicle emissions and industrial filtration. Health expenditure should reach at least 3.5% of GDPpc. Economic diversification policies should gradually shift dependence from carbon-intensive sectors toward cleaner production technologies.